1. Yankees
I think the A-Rod saga could actually help the Yankees this year. Normally, prominent new Yankees are under an intense microscope. However, the media focus on A-Rod will actually lessen the pressure on Tex, CC and A.J. That plus an underrated bullpen and a (hopefully) healthy Jeter, Posada and Wang can bring the Yankees back to the post-season.
2. Red Sox
The Red Sox will definitely miss Manny this year. David Ortiz looks to be almost done as well. He went from being a nobody to a huge star out of nowhere when joining the Red Sox, for reasons that have never been explained, but his numbers have gotten worse and worse since the advent of steroid testing. Jason Bay and JD Drew are nice but nowhere near what Manny and Ortiz were at their prime. Like the Yankees last year, the Red Sox this year will be betrayed by their hitting, not their pitching. Should win the Wild Card, though.
3. Rays
The Rays will find it a lot harder this year when everyone is gunning for them. Last year everybody thought they just had a hot start and would cool off eventually. Opponents will take them a lot more seriously this year.
4. Orioles
Decent offense, some pretty good young pitching, one of the best young players in baseball in Nick Markakis. In the National League, they could be a Wild Card contender. In the AL East they'll be lucky to reach .500.
5. Blue Jays
They've pretty much given up the ghost, doing absolutely nothing this off-season. Roy Halladay will get traded to the National League by mid-season.
AL CENTRAL
1. White Sox
I think this will be down to the wire again, but the White Sox are just a little bit deeper and more experienced. This could easily go either way, though, and the second place team should have a more than decent shot at the Wild Card.
2. Twins
See above. One or two key White Sox injuries and Minnesota takes this division easily.
3. Indians
Hard to believe they won the division two years ago. Of course, Sabathia is gone, Cliff Lee is not going to keep winning 20 games and Travis Hafner has declined more rapidly than David Ortiz since the advent of steroids testing.
4. Tigers
From joke to pennant winner to joke again. Remember their young pitchers?
5. Royals
Year after year they finish last, giving them good draft picks. So how come their can't miss-prospects like Alex Gordon and Luke Hochevar keep missing?
AL WEST
1. Athletics
Unlike Kansas City, Oakland seems to know what to do with its good young players. They turned Mark Mulder into Dan Haren into Dana Eveland and Greg Smith, for example. Jason Giambi and Orlando Cabrera are some underrated acquisitions, too.
2. Angels
They may miss K-Rod, but they'll miss Garret Anderson even more. And their rotation is already being hit by injuries.
3. Rangers
Believe it or not they were 50-46 at the All Star break last year. Still, any team whose big acquisitions are Omar Vizquel and Andruw Jones isn't going anywhere.
4. Mariners
This team needs a whole lot more than Endy Chavez and Ken Griffey's pot belly. (Being a Yankee fan, I hadn't seen Griffey in years. When he was traded back to the AL last year I was shocked at how out of shape he looked.)
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