I'll start with the AL East.
1. Yankees
Well of course I could never pick against the Yankees. This seems pretty reasonable, though - this doesn't look like the type of team that is going to get complacent. I just worry about age and injuries. If Jeter, Rivera, and the gang can keep up their high level of play, the Yankees should win the division again.
2. Red Sox
Their success boils down to the health of the starting rotation. All five starters have the potential to be Cy Young winners, and all five have the potential to spend most of the year on the DL. If all five starters stay healthy all season the Red Sox will win 100 games. If two or more pitchers can't stay healthy, an offense that suddenly has a lot of question marks outside of Youkilis and Pedroia will find itself having to carry the team.
3. Rays
The Rays will certainly be better in 2010 than in 2009. They're a piece or two short of seriously challenging the Yankees or Red Sox, though, and I don't think Rays management has the guts to go after the missing pieces, as evidenced by the Scott Kazmir trade.
4. Orioles
Baltimore is quietly putting together a real nice young lineup. Their young pitchers have yet to prove anything, however.
5. Blue Jays
Years of bad management don't get fixed overnight. It will be a while before the new GM can put together a contender.
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